Let’s talk about economic stimulus. Is there really such a thing and why would it be good? Economy is the way we support ourselves so we can live an obedient, disciplined life. The basics are food, clothing and shelter. Every thing after that is not a necessity.
What is the real current economic situation in the country? …in the world? I would suggest that we are about where we should be. A year ago we may have been living in a fantasy situation. I suggest that since 1935 in this country the real economic condition has been growing at about 2.5%/yr, (about the same as the population) Since 1985 we have been in a falsely created situation. We have been living “higher” than affordable. We have been living on “borrowed” money. The FED and others have been maintaining that by manipulating interest rates and other factors to “stimulate” unrealistic borrowing. The condition is sustained by borrowing more. Now we are at the point of the, so called “Credit Crunch”. We don’t have a credit crunch. We have a debt problem. We are borrowed up to our eyeballs and higher and there is no place to turn. Te bubble has burst. The house of cards is falling down. How far will it fall? …a little below the real sustainable commerce level. We are almost there. I think a Dow of 4000 will bracket the situation. The DJIA is made up of 30 good industrial companies. (well, mostly good) Their current earnings levels have stabilized the index at the 8500 mark. But, earnings in the next quarter and the next year will be 20 to 30 % lower. So, I expect the index to decline further. And, people have to get their finances back in order. They must reduce their debt levels. They have to get back into a positive savings mode. They needs three to six months of living in their checking accounts. They need four to five years of living in their savings accounts. The price of homes has to get back to realistic. Used home prices should be at or 30% below the building costs. What are the prices in your community?
To reach this stable situation reveals discomfort for some and disaster for others. We need to make provisions for those who are out of work and out of their home. Eighty or eight five percent of the people are and will be okay. But, fifteen to twenty percent are going to need some help. Some of these need help indefinitely. Others will eventually find employment and get back on their financial feet. It will take two or three years to sort this out. Obama is talking about a “Stimulus Package” aimed at 2,5 million people. He wants to spend whatever it takes and create jobs for this number. The current estimate is $1 trillion. I think that is two few jobs and too much money. And, it is an ineffective way to inject growth into our economy. We don’t need “made up” jobs. We need “real” productive jobs. We need purpose. Most of the efforts proposed and tried so far are aimed at getting us back to an unrealistic condition. We need to recognizes the folly of our previous ways and get on a new path with purpose and righteousness. We should talk about that another time. Right now let’s talk about stimulus.
How many people are in trouble? The size of our workforce is elusive. But, let’s say we have 100 million who can and should be working. So, if 85% are okay, then 15 million are not okay. That’s a bit more than the 2.5 million jobs Obama wants to create.
How much money? Let’s say we have to help all of them for a year and half of them for two years. Then there is the 5% that always need help and we already have “adequate” provisions for them. So, that means 10 million for one year and 5 million for one more year. At an aid level of $20,000/yr each that is about $200 billion the first year. … about half that amount for the second year or $300 billon for the two years. The Obama estimate is $1 trillion for 2,5 million jobs. Once again I say, too few people helped too much money spent.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
SATURDAY THOUGHTS
Saturday December 6, 2008
AUTO BAILOUT
So, we are going to grant big loans to the auto companies. There are some good aspects to this and some bad.
Good
1. Keeps more jobs.
2. Takes sales away from foreign carmakers.
3. Provides stronger customers for parts and other suppliers.
4. Gives relief to public shareholders of GM and Ford.
Bad
1. Interferes with free enterprise system
2. Enables bad management practices in domestic companies
3. Sets bad example for citizens who are already leaning heavily on the federal government.
4. Bails out financial speculators i.e. Owner of Chrysler.
NORTH DAKOTA:
Things are booming in this state. Maybe our DC lawmakers should take a trip up there. Might get some sensible ideas about fixing problems elsewhere. We need to have some tough decisions made and some good examples set. I would like to see some unselfish courage exhibited by our lawmakers.
CRIME IN THE U.S. AND THE WORLD:
The rapid growth of Internet crime is an indication of the rapid growth of crime in the world. White-collar crime is condoned, sanctioned even encouraged in the corporate/political arenas of the world. Clever business people and lawyers are busy finding ways to justify legal methods for gaining in a greedy fashion from unsuspecting or ignorant organizations and people. This may include lobbying of powerful political figures.
The God of creation has told us by way of His prophets and apostles that legalism will not work. It is not possible to legislate morality. None us, being born of Adam, are capable of becoming righteous through our own efforts. It is only by the death and resurrection of Christ that we can become righteous. When we know and believe that we have been crucified with Christ and that He now lives in us, we will become righteous.
How will Christ deal with the unbelievers? Since, the soul does not die but lives on in eternity. There are only two choices. Live with Christ in joy or be condemned to eternal damnation. Christ saves, we choose.
What are the believers to do? Live in faith trusting the Lord Jesus Christ. Go to work for Christ and don’t worry about tomorrow.
AUTO BAILOUT
So, we are going to grant big loans to the auto companies. There are some good aspects to this and some bad.
Good
1. Keeps more jobs.
2. Takes sales away from foreign carmakers.
3. Provides stronger customers for parts and other suppliers.
4. Gives relief to public shareholders of GM and Ford.
Bad
1. Interferes with free enterprise system
2. Enables bad management practices in domestic companies
3. Sets bad example for citizens who are already leaning heavily on the federal government.
4. Bails out financial speculators i.e. Owner of Chrysler.
NORTH DAKOTA:
Things are booming in this state. Maybe our DC lawmakers should take a trip up there. Might get some sensible ideas about fixing problems elsewhere. We need to have some tough decisions made and some good examples set. I would like to see some unselfish courage exhibited by our lawmakers.
CRIME IN THE U.S. AND THE WORLD:
The rapid growth of Internet crime is an indication of the rapid growth of crime in the world. White-collar crime is condoned, sanctioned even encouraged in the corporate/political arenas of the world. Clever business people and lawyers are busy finding ways to justify legal methods for gaining in a greedy fashion from unsuspecting or ignorant organizations and people. This may include lobbying of powerful political figures.
The God of creation has told us by way of His prophets and apostles that legalism will not work. It is not possible to legislate morality. None us, being born of Adam, are capable of becoming righteous through our own efforts. It is only by the death and resurrection of Christ that we can become righteous. When we know and believe that we have been crucified with Christ and that He now lives in us, we will become righteous.
How will Christ deal with the unbelievers? Since, the soul does not die but lives on in eternity. There are only two choices. Live with Christ in joy or be condemned to eternal damnation. Christ saves, we choose.
What are the believers to do? Live in faith trusting the Lord Jesus Christ. Go to work for Christ and don’t worry about tomorrow.
Monday, December 1, 2008
GOD AND MONEY
Study Genesis and see the lesson for money management in The Garden of Eden and with Cain and Able.
Adam ate from the tree of the knowledge of good and evil and was banished from the Garden. Cain and Able each had a farm and were required to work it (toil). Able did a good job and was being rewarded by God. Cain did a bad job and became jealous of Able. He eventually could stand it no more and killed Able.
So, what was Able doing right and Cain doing wrong? The first part of the answer is to trust only in the Lord. Trust not in our own understanding. 1Chronicles 16:8, Proverbs 3:4-6.
Listen to the Lord and He will direct your steps. A tithe goes to God because He is God. And, we learn to live on less than we receive putting away the remainder to build up Treasure in Heaven. This is required because everything we receive and have belongs to God. We are His workers and Stewards. We are asked to plant some of the seed corn every year that it might grow into a bountiful harvest. Then ever year (season) after there will be a bigger yield and the amount of heavy toil required will be reduced.
If you are given a goose that lays golden eggs, you must feed the goose and save some of the eggs. If you don’t feed the goose she will not lay as many eggs. And, with too little food she will eventually die. If you feed the goose she will lay many golden eggs. And, if you get more geese you Will have plenty. But, remember it is all God’s. He will tell you how to use it. Short selling golden eggs leads to ruin.
Adam ate from the tree of the knowledge of good and evil and was banished from the Garden. Cain and Able each had a farm and were required to work it (toil). Able did a good job and was being rewarded by God. Cain did a bad job and became jealous of Able. He eventually could stand it no more and killed Able.
So, what was Able doing right and Cain doing wrong? The first part of the answer is to trust only in the Lord. Trust not in our own understanding. 1Chronicles 16:8, Proverbs 3:4-6.
Listen to the Lord and He will direct your steps. A tithe goes to God because He is God. And, we learn to live on less than we receive putting away the remainder to build up Treasure in Heaven. This is required because everything we receive and have belongs to God. We are His workers and Stewards. We are asked to plant some of the seed corn every year that it might grow into a bountiful harvest. Then ever year (season) after there will be a bigger yield and the amount of heavy toil required will be reduced.
If you are given a goose that lays golden eggs, you must feed the goose and save some of the eggs. If you don’t feed the goose she will not lay as many eggs. And, with too little food she will eventually die. If you feed the goose she will lay many golden eggs. And, if you get more geese you Will have plenty. But, remember it is all God’s. He will tell you how to use it. Short selling golden eggs leads to ruin.
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